Level of understanding required: Intermediate
Disclaimer: these are completely my personal opinion. Please trade / invest at your own risk.
This is the beginning of a new week. I started the day by having a look at Nifty and Bank Nifty together. In Nifty, the 1 day chart sees a break out and a return to the trend line. This is a strong indication that the market went up to a level, came back to consolidate and can power up from here onwards. However, we need to see an upside first to see breaking of level 17900 to be clearer. So there is a positive sign for the Nifty. The major contributor, Reliance Industries sees strength too in the charts. Following this, the Bank Nifty (chart included) sees a break out from trend line and a consolidation, displaying a flag and pole kind of formation. ICICI Bank has beaten market estimates (source: www.moneycontrol.com).
As per my perspective, we can see an upswing in the markets overall. However, on the smaller timeframes, I would like to see price action, before taking intra-day trades.
Will update once the day is done.
Post Market: Successful day, the market went up as per my expectations.
In the morning, I was expecting the Bank Nifty to go up, and it did. In the following image, you can see what gave me the confirmation - it was a W pattern formation on the 15 minute chart.
When I saw this confirmation of the W pattern, I expected a break our from the 42430 levels. Though a larger break-out can be expected after 42600, for Intra-day, this gave some confirmation.
I took my trade. Shorted PE as the expectation was for the market to go up. The trade was successful. I took a short with delta of 0.20, therefore for a target of 10 points on the premium, market had to go up by at-least 50 points.
Note: I could have held on but when I set a target for myself, then I try to stick to that and not overstretch myself. I trail the stop loss and get at least my target. Post that, I trail stop loss by 5 points and if it hits, it hits and my trade is closed. By this, I am able to maintain a Win : Loss Ratio of 2:1 which is very good for my profitability.
Below is the actual traded image:
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